Ten years following the UK entered into a hurried referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a advisory emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each composes two articles that seek neutrality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, historical precedents and structural examples.
Debates encompass identity markers, taxes, healthcare systems, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens report they favour unity but reject greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
